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The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006–2012

Overview of attention for article published in Parasites & Vectors, August 2016
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4 tweeters

Citations

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15 Dimensions

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114 Mendeley
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Title
The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006–2012
Published in
Parasites & Vectors, August 2016
DOI 10.1186/s13071-016-1693-0
Pubmed ID
Authors

Adam Bennett, Josh Yukich, John M. Miller, Joseph Keating, Hawela Moonga, Busiku Hamainza, Mulakwa Kamuliwo, Ricardo Andrade-Pacheco, Penelope Vounatsou, Richard W. Steketee, Thomas P. Eisele

Abstract

Four malaria indicator surveys (MIS) were conducted in Zambia between 2006 and 2012 to evaluate malaria control scale-up. Nationally, coverage of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) increased over this period, while parasite prevalence in children 1-59 months decreased dramatically between 2006 and 2008, but then increased from 2008 to 2010. We assessed the relative effects of vector control coverage and climate variability on malaria parasite prevalence over this period. Nationally-representative MISs were conducted in April-June of 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 to collect household-level information on malaria control interventions such as IRS, ITN ownership and use, and child parasite prevalence by microscopic examination of blood smears. We fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to assess the association between IRS and ITN coverage and climate variability and malaria parasite prevalence. We created predictions of the spatial distribution of malaria prevalence at each time point and compared results of varying IRS, ITN, and climate inputs to assess their relative contributions to changes in prevalence. Nationally, the proportion of households owning an ITN increased from 37.8 % in 2006 to 64.3 % in 2010 and 68.1 % in 2012, with substantial heterogeneity sub-nationally. The population-adjusted predicted child malaria parasite prevalence decreased from 19.6 % in 2006 to 10.4 % in 2008, but rose to 15.3 % in 2010 and 13.5 % in 2012. We estimated that the majority of this prevalence increase at the national level between 2008 and 2010 was due to climate effects on transmission, although there was substantial heterogeneity at the provincial level in the relative contribution of changing climate and ITN availability. We predict that if climate factors preceding the 2010 survey were the same as in 2008, the population-adjusted prevalence would have fallen to 9.9 % nationally. These results suggest that a combination of climate factors and reduced intervention coverage in parts of the country contributed to both the reduction and rebound in malaria parasite prevalence. Unusual rainfall patterns, perhaps related to moderate El Niño conditions, may have contributed to this variation. Zambia has demonstrated considerable success in scaling up vector control. This analysis highlights the importance of accounting for climate variability when using cross-sectional data for evaluation of malaria control efforts.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 4 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 114 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 1 <1%
Kenya 1 <1%
Australia 1 <1%
Unknown 111 97%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Master 30 26%
Researcher 21 18%
Student > Ph. D. Student 15 13%
Student > Bachelor 10 9%
Student > Doctoral Student 7 6%
Other 13 11%
Unknown 18 16%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 27 24%
Environmental Science 18 16%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 11 10%
Nursing and Health Professions 9 8%
Social Sciences 6 5%
Other 21 18%
Unknown 22 19%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 2. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 11 August 2016.
All research outputs
#4,116,088
of 8,200,733 outputs
Outputs from Parasites & Vectors
#1,139
of 2,287 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#129,631
of 257,543 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Parasites & Vectors
#82
of 140 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 8,200,733 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 47th percentile – i.e., 47% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,287 research outputs from this source. They receive a mean Attention Score of 3.7. This one is in the 44th percentile – i.e., 44% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 257,543 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 45th percentile – i.e., 45% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 140 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 37th percentile – i.e., 37% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.