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Forecasting United States heartworm Dirofilaria immitis prevalence in dogs

Overview of attention for article published in Parasites & Vectors, October 2016
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Title
Forecasting United States heartworm Dirofilaria immitis prevalence in dogs
Published in
Parasites & Vectors, October 2016
DOI 10.1186/s13071-016-1804-y
Pubmed ID
Authors

Dwight D. Bowman, Yan Liu, Christopher S. McMahan, Shila K. Nordone, Michael J. Yabsley, Robert B. Lund

Abstract

This paper forecasts next year's canine heartworm prevalence in the United States from 16 climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast's construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 31 million antigen heartworm tests conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011-2015. The forecast uses county-level data on 16 predictive factors, including temperature, precipitation, median household income, local forest and surface water coverage, and presence/absence of eight mosquito species. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year's regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county heartworm prevalence for the 5-year period 2011-2015 is 0.727, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The correlation between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county heartworm prevalence is 0.940, demonstrating significant skill and showing that heartworm prevalence can be forecasted reasonably accurately. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see higher than normal heartworm activity. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 59 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 59 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Bachelor 12 20%
Student > Ph. D. Student 9 15%
Student > Master 8 14%
Researcher 6 10%
Student > Postgraduate 4 7%
Other 6 10%
Unknown 14 24%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine 14 24%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 11 19%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 7 12%
Medicine and Dentistry 3 5%
Psychology 3 5%
Other 6 10%
Unknown 15 25%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 1. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 25 October 2016.
All research outputs
#15,387,502
of 22,893,031 outputs
Outputs from Parasites & Vectors
#3,395
of 5,476 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#201,995
of 320,105 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Parasites & Vectors
#60
of 96 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 22,893,031 research outputs across all sources so far. This one is in the 22nd percentile – i.e., 22% of other outputs scored the same or lower than it.
So far Altmetric has tracked 5,476 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a little more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 5.7. This one is in the 30th percentile – i.e., 30% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 320,105 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one is in the 28th percentile – i.e., 28% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.
We're also able to compare this research output to 96 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 27th percentile – i.e., 27% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.