Title |
Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches
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Published in |
Malaria Journal, March 2010
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DOI | 10.1186/1475-2875-9-70 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Steven W Lindsay, David G Hole, Robert A Hutchinson, Shane A Richards, Stephen G Willis |
Abstract |
The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. |
X Demographics
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
United States | 1 | 50% |
United Kingdom | 1 | 50% |
Demographic breakdown
Type | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Members of the public | 2 | 100% |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
Country | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
United Kingdom | 3 | 2% |
Germany | 1 | <1% |
Turkey | 1 | <1% |
Canada | 1 | <1% |
New Zealand | 1 | <1% |
Belgium | 1 | <1% |
Nigeria | 1 | <1% |
Thailand | 1 | <1% |
Spain | 1 | <1% |
Other | 0 | 0% |
Unknown | 134 | 92% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Student > Master | 38 | 26% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 24 | 17% |
Researcher | 21 | 14% |
Student > Bachelor | 16 | 11% |
Other | 8 | 6% |
Other | 22 | 15% |
Unknown | 16 | 11% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 39 | 27% |
Environmental Science | 20 | 14% |
Medicine and Dentistry | 15 | 10% |
Social Sciences | 11 | 8% |
Earth and Planetary Sciences | 9 | 6% |
Other | 28 | 19% |
Unknown | 23 | 16% |