Multi-event capture–recapture modeling of host–pathogen dynamics among European rabbit populations exposed to myxoma and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Viruses: common and heterogeneous patterns

Simone Santoro, Isa Pacios, Sacramento Moreno, Alejandro Bertó-Moran, Carlos Rouco

Host-pathogen epidemiological processes are often unclear due both to their complexity and over-simplistic approaches used to quantify them. We applied a multi-event capture-recapture procedure on two years of data from three rabbit populations to test hypotheses about the effects on survival of, and the dynamics of host immunity to, both myxoma virus and Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (MV and RHDV). Although the populations shared the same climatic and management conditions, MV and RHDV dynamics varied greatly among them; MV and RHDV seroprevalences were positively related to density in one population, but RHDV seroprevalence was negatively related to density in another. In addition, (i) juvenile survival was most often negatively related to seropositivity, (ii) RHDV seropositives never had considerably higher survival, and (iii) seroconversion to seropositivity was more likely than the reverse. We suggest seropositivity affects survival depending on trade-offs among antibody protection, immunosuppression and virus lethality. Negative effects of seropositivity might be greater on juveniles due to their immature immune system. Also, while RHDV directly affects survival through the hemorrhagic syndrome, MV lack of direct lethal effects means that interactions influencing survival are likely to be more complex. Multi-event modeling allowed us to quantify patterns of host-pathogen dynamics otherwise difficult to discern. Such an approach offers a promising tool to shed light on causative mechanisms.