Title |
Towards malaria elimination in Mpumalanga, South Africa: a population-level mathematical modelling approach
|
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Published in |
Malaria Journal, August 2014
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DOI | 10.1186/1475-2875-13-297 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Sheetal P Silal, Francesca Little, Karen I Barnes, Lisa J White |
Abstract |
Mpumalanga in South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria by 2018 and efforts are increasing beyond that necessary for malaria control. Differential Equation models may be used to study the incidence and spread of disease with an important benefit being the ability to enact exogenous change on the system to predict impact without committing any real resources. The model is a deterministic non-linear ordinary differential equation representation of the dynamics of the human population. The model is fitted to weekly data of treated cases from 2002 to 2008, and then validated with data from 2009 to 2012. Elimination-focused interventions such as the scale-up of vector control, mass drug administration, a focused mass screen and treat campaign and foreign source reduction are applied to the model to assess their potential impact on transmission. |
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Mendeley readers
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