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Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa

Overview of attention for article published in Parasites & Vectors, January 2015
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  • In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (95th percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (97th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
3 news outlets
twitter
6 tweeters

Citations

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71 Dimensions

Readers on

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160 Mendeley
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Title
Predicting the effects of climate change on Schistosoma mansoni transmission in eastern Africa
Published in
Parasites & Vectors, January 2015
DOI 10.1186/s13071-014-0617-0
Pubmed ID
Authors

Nicky McCreesh, Grigory Nikulin, Mark Booth

Abstract

BackgroundSurvival and fitness attributes of free-living and sporocyst schistosome life-stages and their intermediate host snails are sensitive to water temperature. Climate change may alter the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis by affecting the suitability of freshwater bodies for hosting parasite and snail populations.MethodsWe have developed an agent-based model of the temperature-sensitive stages of the Schistosoma mansoni and intermediate host snail lifecycles. The model was run using low, moderate and high warming climate projections over eastern Africa. For each climate projection, eight model scenarios were used to determine the sensitivity of predictions to different relationships between air and water temperature, and different snail mortality rates. Maps were produced showing predicted changes in risk as a result of increasing temperatures over the next 20 and 50 years.ResultsBaseline model output compared to prevalence data indicates suitable temperatures are necessary but not sufficient for both S. mansoni transmission and high infection prevalences. All else being equal, infection risk may increase by up to 20% over most of eastern Africa over the next 20 and 50 years. Increases may be higher in Rwanda, Burundi, south-west Kenya and eastern Zambia, and S. mansoni may become newly endemic in some areas. Results for 20-year projections are robust to changes in simulated intermediate host snail habitat conditions. There is greater uncertainty about the effects of different habitats on changes in risk in 50 years¿ time.ConclusionsTemperatures are likely to become suitable for increased S. mansoni transmission over much of eastern Africa. This may reduce the impact of control and elimination programmes. S. mansoni may also spread to new areas outside existing control programmes. We call for increased surveillance in areas defined as potentially suitable for emergent transmission.

Twitter Demographics

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 160 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Australia 1 <1%
Unknown 159 99%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Master 37 23%
Student > Ph. D. Student 27 17%
Student > Bachelor 27 17%
Researcher 24 15%
Student > Postgraduate 8 5%
Other 18 11%
Unknown 19 12%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 30 19%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 22 14%
Environmental Science 17 11%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 12 8%
Nursing and Health Professions 11 7%
Other 44 28%
Unknown 24 15%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 32. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 13 July 2021.
All research outputs
#879,648
of 19,914,721 outputs
Outputs from Parasites & Vectors
#109
of 4,984 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#14,874
of 332,742 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Parasites & Vectors
#6
of 267 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 19,914,721 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done particularly well and is in the 95th percentile: it's in the top 5% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 4,984 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a little more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 5.1. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 97% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 332,742 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 95% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 267 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 97% of its contemporaries.