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Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany – a mathematical modelling study

Overview of attention for article published in BMC Medicine, January 2018
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • Good Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (78th percentile)
  • Average Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source

Mentioned by

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1 policy source
twitter
6 tweeters

Citations

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14 Dimensions

Readers on

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45 Mendeley
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Title
Influence of demographic changes on the impact of vaccination against varicella and herpes zoster in Germany – a mathematical modelling study
Published in
BMC Medicine, January 2018
DOI 10.1186/s12916-017-0983-5
Pubmed ID
Authors

Johannes Horn, Oliver Damm, Wolfgang Greiner, Hartmut Hengel, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, Anette Siedler, Bernhard Ultsch, Felix Weidemann, Ole Wichmann, André Karch, Rafael T. Mikolajczyk

Abstract

Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination programs and demographic dynamics will affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in Germany over the next 50 years. We used a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology in three demographic scenarios, namely the projected population for Germany, the projected population additionally accounting for increased immigration as observed in 2015/2016, and a stationary population. Projected demographic changes alone result in an increase of annual HZ cases by 18.3% and a decrease of varicella cases by 45.7% between 1990 and 2060. Independently of the demographic scenario, varicella vaccination reduces the cumulative number of varicella cases until 2060 by approximately 70%, but also increases HZ cases by 10%. Unlike the currently licensed live attenuated HZ vaccine, the new subunit vaccine candidate might completely counteract this effect. Relative vaccine effects were consistent across all demographic scenarios. Demographic dynamics will be a major determinant of HZ epidemiology in the next 50 years. While stationary population models are appropriate for assessing vaccination impact, models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization decision-making and resource planning.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 6 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 45 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 45 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 8 18%
Student > Master 7 16%
Student > Bachelor 5 11%
Student > Ph. D. Student 5 11%
Other 2 4%
Other 6 13%
Unknown 12 27%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 12 27%
Nursing and Health Professions 6 13%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 3 7%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 2 4%
Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutical Science 2 4%
Other 7 16%
Unknown 13 29%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 8. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 14 September 2021.
All research outputs
#3,438,078
of 19,734,181 outputs
Outputs from BMC Medicine
#1,784
of 2,923 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#94,215
of 430,869 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Medicine
#114
of 213 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 19,734,181 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 82nd percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 2,923 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 39.4. This one is in the 38th percentile – i.e., 38% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 430,869 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 78% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 213 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 46th percentile – i.e., 46% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.