Modelling sterile insect technique to control the population of Anopheles gambiae

James E Gentile, Samuel SC Rund, Gregory R Madey

There is a renewed effort to develop novel malaria control strategies as even well-implemented existing malaria control tools may fail to block transmission in some regions. Currently, transgenic implementations of the sterile insect technique (SIT) such as the release of insects with a dominant lethal, homing endonuclease genes, or flightless mosquitoes are in development. These implementations involve the release of transgenic male mosquitoes whose matings with wild females produce either no viable offspring or no female offspring. As these technologies are all in their infancy, little is known about the relative efficiencies of the various implementations. This paper describes agent-based modelling of emerging and theoretical implementations of transgenic SIT in Anopheles gambiae for the control of malaria. It reports on female suppression as it is affected by the SIT implementation, the number of released males, and competitiveness of released males. The simulation experiments suggest that a late-acting bisex lethal gene is the most efficient of the four implementations we simulated. They demonstrate 1) the relative impact of release size on a campaign's effectiveness 2) late-acting genes are preferred because of their ability to exploit density dependent larval mortality 3) late-acting bisex lethal genes achieve elimination before their female-killing counterparts.