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Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease

Overview of attention for article published in BMC Medicine, April 2015
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  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • Good Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (77th percentile)

Mentioned by

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7 tweeters
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3 Facebook pages

Citations

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44 Dimensions

Readers on

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117 Mendeley
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Title
Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease
Published in
BMC Medicine, April 2015
DOI 10.1186/s12916-015-0341-4
Pubmed ID
Authors

Grace H Huynh, Daniel J Klein, Daniel P Chin, Bradley G Wagner, Philip A Eckhoff, Renzhong Liu, Lixia Wang

Abstract

In the last 20 years, China ramped up a DOTS (directly observed treatment, short-course)-based tuberculosis (TB) control program with 80% population coverage, achieving the 2015 Millennium Development Goal of a 50% reduction in TB prevalence and mortality. Recently, the World Health Organization developed the End TB Strategy, with an overall goal of a 90% reduction in TB incidence and a 95% reduction in TB deaths from 2015-2035. As the TB burden shifts to older individuals and China's overall population ages, it is unclear if maintaining the current DOTS strategy will be sufficient for China to reach the global targets. We developed an individual-based computational model of TB transmission, implementing realistic age demographics and fitting to country-level data of age-dependent prevalence over time. We explored the trajectory of TB burden if the DOTS strategy is maintained or if new interventions are introduced using currently available and soon-to-be-available tools. These interventions include increasing population coverage of DOTS, reducing time to treatment, increasing treatment success, and active case finding among elders > 65 years old. We also considered preventative therapy in latently infected elders, a strategy limited by resource constraints and the risk of adverse events. Maintenance of the DOTS strategy reduces TB incidence and mortality by 42% (95% credible interval, 27-59%) and 41% (5-64%), respectively, between 2015 and 2035. A combination of all feasible interventions nears the 2035 mortality target, reducing TB incidence and mortality by 59% (50-76%) and 83% (73-94%). Addition of preventative therapy for elders would enable China to nearly reach both the incidence and mortality targets, reducing incidence and mortality by 84% (78-93%) and 92% (86-98%). The current decline in incidence is driven by two factors: maintaining a low level of new infections in young individuals and the aging out of older latently infected individuals who contribute incidence due to reactivation disease. While further reducing the level of new infections has a modest effect on burden, interventions that limit reactivation have a greater impact on TB burden. Tools that make preventative therapy more feasible on a large scale and in elders will help China achieve the global targets.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 7 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 117 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 117 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Master 32 27%
Researcher 18 15%
Student > Ph. D. Student 12 10%
Student > Bachelor 9 8%
Other 7 6%
Other 21 18%
Unknown 18 15%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 37 32%
Nursing and Health Professions 17 15%
Mathematics 9 8%
Social Sciences 6 5%
Engineering 4 3%
Other 19 16%
Unknown 25 21%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 6. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 25 April 2015.
All research outputs
#1,825,433
of 9,724,852 outputs
Outputs from BMC Medicine
#1,156
of 1,780 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#47,277
of 211,450 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Medicine
#64
of 82 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 9,724,852 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 81st percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,780 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 32.2. This one is in the 34th percentile – i.e., 34% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 211,450 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 77% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 82 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 21st percentile – i.e., 21% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.