Application of data mining techniques and logistic regression to model drug use transition to injection: a case study in drug use treatment centers in Kermanshah Province, Iran

Somayeh Najafi-Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi-Ghobadi, Lily Tapak, Abbas Aghaei

Drug injection has been increasing over the past decades all over the world. Hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV and HCV) are two common infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) and more than 60% of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cases are PWID. Thus, investigating risk factors associated with drug use transition to injection is essential and was the aim of this research. We used a database from drug use treatment centers in Kermanshah Province (Iran) in 2013 that included 2098 records of people who use drugs (PWUD). The information of 29 potential risk factors that are commonly used in the literature on drug use was selected. We employed four classification methods (decision tree, neural network, support vector machine, and logistic regression) to determine factors affecting the decision of PWUD to transition to injection. The average specificity of all models was over 84%. Support vector machine produced the highest specificity (0.9). Also, this model showed the highest total accuracy (0.91), sensitivity (0.94), positive likelihood ratio [1] and Kappa (0.94) and the smallest negative likelihood ratio (0). Therefore, important factors according to the support vector machine model were used for further interpretation. Based on the support vector machine model, the use of heroin, cocaine, and hallucinogens were identified as the three most important factors associated with drug use transition injection. The results further indicated that PWUD with the history of prison or using drug due to curiosity and unemployment are at higher risks. Unemployment and unreliable sources of income were other suggested factors of transition in this research.