Are there really any predictive factors for a successful weight loss after bariatric surgery?

Diego Cadena-Obando, Claudia Ramírez-Rentería, Aldo Ferreira-Hermosillo, Alejandra Albarrán-Sanchez, Ernesto Sosa-Eroza, Mario Molina-Ayala, Etual Espinosa-Cárdenas

Currently, bariatric surgery is the most effective treatment for severe obesity and its metabolic complications; however, 15-35% of the patients that undergo bariatric surgery do not reach their goal for weight loss. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of patients that didn't reach the goal of an excess weight loss of 50% or more during the first 12 months and determine the factors associated to this failure. We obtained the demographic, anthropometric and biochemical information from 130 patients with severe obesity who underwent bariatric surgery in our institution between 2012 and 2017. We used self-reports of physical activity, caloric intake and diet composition. An unsuccessful weight loss was considered when the patient lost < 50% or more of the excess weight 12 months after surgery. We compared the characteristics between the successful and unsuccessful groups in order to find the factors associated with success. We included 130 patients (mean age 48 ± 9 years, 81.5% were women). One year after surgery, 26 (20%) had loss < 50% EBW. Unsuccessful surgery was associated with an older age, previous history of hypertension, abdominal surgery or depression/anxiety, also the number of comorbidities and unemployment affected the results. These patients loss enough weight to improve some of their comorbidities, but they are more prone to regain weight 2 years after surgery. A fifth of the patients undergoing bariatric surgery may not lose enough weight to be considered successful by current standards. Some patients may benefit from the surgery in the short term, but they are more likely to regain weight after 2 years. The factors influencing this result are still controversial but may be population-specific. Early detection of the patients that are more likely to fail is imperative to establish additional therapeutic strategies, without denying them the opportunity of surgery or waiting for weight re-gain to occur.