@USMortality @Jonatha65255939 @jneill Studies line this https://t.co/5kqlz8M8h6 make it very clear that distancing measures dramatically cut rates of contact per day. Given we’re talking about an airborne respiratory virus making any argument this won’t r
RT @sinichol: @AaronDLinkin @Intuitive_Dream @AmyZ4Yah @VigilantFox Wow, patronising shit much? Here are citations. 1⃣10.8 encounters per…
@AaronDLinkin @Intuitive_Dream @AmyZ4Yah @VigilantFox Wow, patronising shit much? Here are citations. 1⃣10.8 encounters per day (so 11) was sampled in this study, not 12, my bad, but I'm sure you'll make some pedantic point as you seem to be into pointin
@shrewddudescast @johnnutt21 @Michael02364675 @DesG41164958 @freebird_413 @BryanDeanWright What daft absolutism. I’d have far more respect for you if you said the effect they had was not worth it. To say they had none makes you hyperbolic, and just stupi
@ZwagerRob @Reomretsoo @mkeulemans @mauricedehond @vanranstmarc There is research which confirms effectiveness of social distancing. @realBertBlocken did also for outside situations. https://t.co/u9yzea3bUb https://t.co/3I0w9N9PxP https://t.co/2anBXDK2J0
@msabouri @my_own_RESEARCH @greg_travis @Marco_Piani @jneill @kallmemeg @BallouxFrancois Sure, but this is irrelevant to the larger point in my tweet, how can 25% prior immunity stop spread at 8%? It is for the birds that Tcells caused the 1st peak and no
@FrancisxONeill @MPH8689 @hansel21_ @jneill @Alicebellamy @Iandaygmcbooks @JTibballs @AllisonPearson @toadmeister @ONS Still short of 1.25m. The total is now at 650k, with vaccines having preventing the rest having happened. Studies like this https://t.c
"CoMix Study – Social Contact Survey in the UK" Speaker: @Jarvis_Stats A behavioural survey with a study sample broadly representative of the UK adult population. Aims to track the reproduction number and mean contacts over time. 17/23 https://t.co/DIoE3
@mgmgomes1 One example - contact changes shouldn’t have predicted R so well if immunity was contributing a lot to dynamics. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht. Not sure why you’d have expected (a presumably uncontrolled) 2nd wave to be smaller than controlled 1st wav
@alkcheet @toadmeister Full plot https://t.co/vcTfhK1U3O shows mobility's the most correlated factor for deaths. Cutting contacts works https://t.co/5kqlz8M8h6. If your job says WFH, they've LD the office. This happen to 50-60% in 🇸🇪, a LD. But, they o
RT @sinichol: @ClareCraigPath @nevercunninplan Clare, you're either disingenuous, or you don't understand transmission dynamics. Sure we r…
@ClareCraigPath @nevercunninplan Clare, you're either disingenuous, or you don't understand transmission dynamics. Sure we reached an HIT everytime cases fell, but HIT=1-(1/R0), and R0's a fn of behaviour, cut contact rates to 1/4 https://t.co/5kqlz8M8h6,
Broadstroke, mobility dropped most in 1st🌊, almost as much in 3rd, and least in 2nd likely due to schools staying open. Studies like https://t.co/5kqlz8M8h6 show the impact on rates of contact. Do other cities show the same? 9) Add Manc, Liverpool and L
RT @sinichol: @GommezFran1 @AtomsksSanakan @msabouri @my_own_RESEARCH @sschinke @LajXtra @inden_l This🧵shows mobility rates are a proxy for…
@GommezFran1 @AtomsksSanakan @msabouri @my_own_RESEARCH @sschinke @LajXtra @inden_l This🧵shows mobility rates are a proxy for NPIs, and the most likely explanation for spread fall off. I hate them, but only fools deny basic science or germ theory👇 https://
@greg_travis I’m agreeing with you! The main primary driver of suppression has been NPIs, dropping contact rates from 10.8/dy to 2.8. https://t.co/k35sWtcQTE Seasonality is a 2ndary effect and on top adding about 1/5 of the effect, but, alone would be pi
@msabouri @greg_travis @my_own_RESEARCH @Marco_Piani @jneill @kallmemeg @BallouxFrancois It's basic epidemiology. The HIT, is a function of the R0. HIT= 1-(1/R0). Change the transmission dynamics. Change the ceiling. e.g. R0=4, HIT = 75% R0=1.2, HIT = 16%
RT @sinichol: @toadmeister This calc is wrong. 80% chance of inf per contact is crazy, more like 20%. Plus 👉masks cut outbound spread 5x…
@toadmeister This calc is wrong. 80% chance of inf per contact is crazy, more like 20%. Plus 👉masks cut outbound spread 5x 👉contact rates have dropped from 10.8 to 2.8 https://t.co/k35sWtcQTE Dropping risk from 1-((1-0.2)^10.8) = 91% to 1-((1-(0.2/5))^2
RT @AdamJKucharski: (Estimation of B.1.1.7 transmissibility: https://t.co/NRFOS2NTZN & UK contact patterns: https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht)
RT @AdamJKucharski: (Estimation of B.1.1.7 transmissibility: https://t.co/NRFOS2NTZN & UK contact patterns: https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht)
RT @AdamJKucharski: (Estimation of B.1.1.7 transmissibility: https://t.co/NRFOS2NTZN & UK contact patterns: https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht)
RT @AdamJKucharski: (Estimation of B.1.1.7 transmissibility: https://t.co/NRFOS2NTZN & UK contact patterns: https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht)
(Estimation of B.1.1.7 transmissibility: https://t.co/NRFOS2NTZN & UK contact patterns: https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht)
@_PaulMoseley_ @Timothy_Greer_ @Mike_Fabricant @PaulStonehous15 https://t.co/sQ8T3SjzhR Personal fav. John Edmunds is a shill, here he is arguing against lockdown https://t.co/3tLSpduKIM
@JamesWard73 @stevebrown2856 @TheMightyKM Some evidence for factor of 4 ("We found a 74% reduction") in lockdown 1: https://t.co/7BKHRB9NHB. Lockdown 1 was probably about as stringent as Jan-Feb 2021 (maybe it was a little more stringent, but I think we're
@jprnyct @CJRH_01 @ClarkeMicah Was that what I was doing? Sorry if it was 😅 I thought I was giving a lot more evidence than that. I'll do better then. Here's a study from the 1st wave suggesting that lockdowns drastically reduced contact. https://t.co
@politicaljunkd1 @DavidAOliverJr @jawillick @RogueWPA Here's one study on the effect of distance. If you don't know the difference between one person spreading and dozens, I don't know how to help you.. https://t.co/dKsZF5flQI
@gkakaniaris @IoannisGrammati @Nyrros Στα μεθοδολογικά εχώ αναφερθεί εδώ ας πούμε https://t.co/70amEEAAqg
CoMix survey reports referenced (“suggest[ing] lower rates of contact in London than the NW of England over the summer”) published from March to September at: https://t.co/5pmNdNOd6g Initial report from March: https://t.co/CT2vymnuYO published in BMC Med.
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
RT @AdamJKucharski: We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.…
We need data on where transmission happens (e.g. https://t.co/V8y65vDuHp), patterns of social contacts (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) & longitudinal studies of immunity (e.g. https://t.co/D4m57IttGy). And modelling analysis that can make sense of these
RT @TsioutisC: Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK https://t.co/rPXKoARIor The…
Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK https://t.co/rPXKoARIor The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study https:/
As evidence shows (Thanks @AdamJKucharski for info ) av daily contacts dropped to 2.8 after lockdown https://t.co/4UPH9qa3W8 implying about 2/3 of contacts within the home. This measure falling as lockdown eases - but only @DHSCgovuk has or should have
@gendale1 Fizicko distanciranje bi trebalo da traje onoliko koliko se naucnim projektim utvrdi da je potrebno. Razlikuje se od drzave do drzave ali projekat mora da se napravi i izracuna. Evo primera: https://t.co/MlX1v4albj https://t.co/i8KfTIaXVX
RT @AdamJKucharski: @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduc…
RT @AdamJKucharski: @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduc…
RT @AdamJKucharski: @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduc…
RT @AdamJKucharski: @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduc…
RT @AdamJKucharski: @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduc…
RT @AdamJKucharski: @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduc…
@Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort et al used social contact data to provide early evidence that control measures had reduced R to below 1 in UK: https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht 12/
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @KevinvZandvoort: Now published. First results of our ongoing contact survey: Impact of UK lockdown on R0 of Covid19
@BMCMedicine @Jarvis_Stats @KevinvZandvoort @amyg225 @kiesha_prem Where is that location split? https://t.co/70amEEAAqg
@th_alys @VanaSypsa @SpirosDenaxas @Jarvis_Stats "Further details of participant demographics and the averagenumber of contacts stratified by age, gender, householdsize, *and location* (?) are presented in Table2" Location split absent on table 2 @BMCMed
RT @VanaSypsa: 2/5 This was assessed using a social contacts survey in a sample of children and adults. The decline is similar to that esti…
RT @VanaSypsa: 2/5 This was assessed using a social contacts survey in a sample of children and adults. The decline is similar to that esti…
2/5 This was assessed using a social contacts survey in a sample of children and adults. The decline is similar to that estimated in two other surveys in China (https://t.co/lOGAerVupO) and UK (adults only in UK) (https://t.co/wRUDmPWohB)
@timcolbourn @globalhlthtwit If that's the view, it's completely implausible. The change in R under lockdown can be predicted by reduction in mobility / number of contacts. See Jarvis et al. Compare US/Sweden to Austria/NZ/UK. In the former, mobility was h
RT @twittanfruscole: Del quantizzare 'impatto misure di distanziamento fisico su trasmissione Covid-19' nel Regno Unito. 'Rilevamento cambi…
Del quantizzare 'impatto misure di distanziamento fisico su trasmissione Covid-19' nel Regno Unito. 'Rilevamento cambiamento comportamentale' Vs 'sorveglianza epidemiologica di routine' può consentire una più rapida stima impatto misure dist. fisico https:
@Life_Disrupted @rowlsmanthorpe The numbers also depend on level of social distancing that remains in place. The baseline figure of 15–40 contacts traced per index case comes from normal UK behavioural patterns, whereas during lockdown people have substant
@LBetterini https://t.co/xnEvyXNY2c - two weeks old but I misread it originally. Essentially it says the same thing yours says but in a different way. The lockdown is supposed to reduced the R0 after lockdown policies are done so essentially it worked. But
Di UK, kepatuhan penurunan kontak 75% menurunkan potensi 1 kasus menjadi hampir 3 kasus baru ke kurang dr 1 kasus baru, sejalan dng penurunan penambahan kasus/hari yg terlaporkan dr 20% ke 7% & pemerintah berhasil dng model pembatasan yg diterapkan, CM
@urigoren @IdoShamirIdo @considerthefish @HelenBranswell זה מחקר שבחן כמה יורד מקדם ההדבקה והקיטוע של קשרים חברתיים. בקצרה, דרמטית. https://t.co/nynlJc4ekL
To mitigate and slow the spread of #COVIDー19, many countries have adopted unprecedented physical distancing policies https://t.co/Tnxr7Sheac
@pweiskopf @CT_Bergstrom https://t.co/HXjOzZEqG2 "The physical distancing measures adopted by the UK public have substantially reduced contact levels and will likely lead to a substantial impact and a decline in cases in the coming weeks."
RT @Jarvis_Stats: Now peer reviewed and published today. Our work looking at the impact of lockdown on contacts and the reproduction number…
RT @BMCMedicine: New #OpenAccess research from @Jarvis_Stats and colleagues: Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the tr…
RT @Jarvis_Stats: Now peer reviewed and published today. Our work looking at the impact of lockdown on contacts and the reproduction number…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @BMCMedicine: New #OpenAccess research from @Jarvis_Stats and colleagues: Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the tr…
RT @ProfNGreenberg: Really useful paper by @EPR_HPRU colleague James Rubin, and co-authors, shows that social distancing makes a difference…
RT @BMCMedicine: New #OpenAccess research from @Jarvis_Stats and colleagues: Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the tr…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @EPR_HPRU: Paper by James Rubin and colleagues @LSHTM quantifying the impact of physical distancing in the UK https://t.co/3HxWKtZRp2
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @EPR_HPRU: Paper by James Rubin and colleagues @LSHTM quantifying the impact of physical distancing in the UK https://t.co/3HxWKtZRp2
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @EPR_HPRU: Paper by James Rubin and colleagues @LSHTM quantifying the impact of physical distancing in the UK https://t.co/3HxWKtZRp2
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @EPR_HPRU: Paper by James Rubin and colleagues @LSHTM quantifying the impact of physical distancing in the UK https://t.co/3HxWKtZRp2
This paper gives some insight into the value of physical distancing measures but also explains the care that must be applied to quantifying that value.
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…
RT @AdamJKucharski: One way to deal with the time issue is to use real-time social contact data (e.g. https://t.co/b2eNQpS9ht) to measure h…