Title |
Quantitative assessment of the probability of bluetongue virus overwintering by horizontal transmission: application to Germany
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Published in |
Veterinary Research, January 2011
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DOI | 10.1186/1297-9716-42-4 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Sebastian Napp, Simon Gubbins, Paolo Calistri, Alberto Allepuz, Anna Alba, Ignacio García-Bocanegra, Armando Giovannini, Jordi Casal |
Abstract |
Even though bluetongue virus (BTV) transmission is apparently interrupted during winter, bluetongue outbreaks often reappear in the next season (overwintering). Several mechanisms for BTV overwintering have been proposed, but to date, their relative importance remain unclear. In order to assess the probability of BTV overwintering by persistence in adult vectors, ruminants (through prolonged viraemia) or a combination of both, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed. Furthermore, the model allowed the role played by the residual number of vectors present during winter to be examined, and the effect of a proportion of Culicoides living inside buildings (endophilic behaviour) to be explored. The model was then applied to a real scenario: overwintering in Germany between 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the limited number of vectors active during winter seemed to allow the transmission of BTV during this period, and that while transmission was favoured by the endophilic behaviour of some Culicoides, its effect was limited. Even though transmission was possible, the likelihood of BTV overwintering by the mechanisms studied seemed too low to explain the observed re-emergence of the disease. Therefore, other overwintering mechanisms not considered in the model are likely to have played a significant role in BTV overwintering in Germany between 2006 and 2007. |
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Geographical breakdown
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United Kingdom | 1 | 2% |
Spain | 1 | 2% |
United States | 1 | 2% |
Argentina | 1 | 2% |
Unknown | 55 | 93% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Researcher | 16 | 27% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 9 | 15% |
Student > Master | 8 | 14% |
Student > Doctoral Student | 4 | 7% |
Other | 3 | 5% |
Other | 10 | 17% |
Unknown | 9 | 15% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
---|---|---|
Agricultural and Biological Sciences | 23 | 39% |
Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine | 11 | 19% |
Medicine and Dentistry | 8 | 14% |
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 2 | 3% |
Environmental Science | 1 | 2% |
Other | 2 | 3% |
Unknown | 12 | 20% |