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Estimation of Zika virus prevalence by appearance of microcephaly

Overview of attention for article published in BMC Infectious Diseases, December 2016
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About this Attention Score

  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (83rd percentile)
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (85th percentile)

Mentioned by

news
1 news outlet
twitter
2 tweeters

Citations

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13 Dimensions

Readers on

mendeley
87 Mendeley
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Title
Estimation of Zika virus prevalence by appearance of microcephaly
Published in
BMC Infectious Diseases, December 2016
DOI 10.1186/s12879-016-2076-z
Pubmed ID
Authors

C. M. Saad-Roy, P. van den Driessche, Junling Ma

Abstract

There currently is a severe Zika Virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil and other South American countries. Due to international travel, this poses severe public health risk of ZIKV importation to other countries. We estimate the prevalence of ZIKV in an import region by the time a microcephaly case is detected, since microcephaly is presently the most significant indication of ZIKV presence. We establish a mathematical model to describe ZIKV spread from a source region to an import region. This model incorporates both vector transmission (between humans and mosquitoes) and sexual transmission (from males to females). We take account of population structure through a contact network for sexually active individuals. Parameter values of our model are either taken from the literature or estimated from travel data. This model gives us the probability distribution of time until detection of the first microcephaly case. Based on current field observations, our results also indicate that the percentage of infected pregnant women that results in fetal abnormalities is more likely to be on the smaller end of the 1%-30% spectrum that is currently hypothesized. Our model predicts that for import regions with at least 250,000 people, on average 1,000-12,000 will have been infected by the time of the first detection of microcephaly, and on average 200-1,500 will be infectious at this time. Larger population sizes do not significantly change our predictions. By the first detection of a microcephaly case, a sizable fraction of the population will have been infected by ZIKV. It is thus clear that adequate surveillance, isolation, and quarantine are needed in susceptible import regions to stop the dissemination of a Zika epidemic.

Twitter Demographics

The data shown below were collected from the profiles of 2 tweeters who shared this research output. Click here to find out more about how the information was compiled.

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 87 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United States 2 2%
United Kingdom 1 1%
Unknown 84 97%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 15 17%
Student > Master 15 17%
Student > Bachelor 12 14%
Student > Doctoral Student 7 8%
Student > Ph. D. Student 7 8%
Other 17 20%
Unknown 14 16%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 25 29%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 10 11%
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology 6 7%
Nursing and Health Professions 6 7%
Social Sciences 6 7%
Other 14 16%
Unknown 20 23%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 10. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 18 December 2016.
All research outputs
#1,108,262
of 9,723,270 outputs
Outputs from BMC Infectious Diseases
#409
of 4,142 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#50,622
of 314,510 outputs
Outputs of similar age from BMC Infectious Diseases
#26
of 186 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 9,723,270 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 88th percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 4,142 research outputs from this source. They receive a mean Attention Score of 4.2. This one has done well, scoring higher than 89% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 314,510 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 83% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 186 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has done well, scoring higher than 85% of its contemporaries.