Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines on pneumococcal meningitis cases in France between 2001 and 2014: a time series analysis

Anna Alari, Hélène Chaussade, Matthieu Domenech De Cellès, Lénaig Le Fouler, Emmanuelle Varon, Lulla Opatowski, Didier Guillemot, Laurence Watier

Pneumococcal meningitis (PM) is a major invasive pneumococcal disease. Two pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced in France: PCV7 was recommended in 2003 and replaced in 2010 by PCV13, which has six additional serotypes. The impact of introducing those vaccines on the evolution of PM case numbers and serotype distributions in France from 2001 to 2014 is assessed herein. Data on 5166 Streptococcus pneumoniae strains isolated from cerebrospinal fluid between 2001 and 2014 in the 22 regions of France were obtained from the National Reference Center for Pneumococci. The effects of the different vaccination campaigns were estimated using time series analyses through autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous variables ("flu-like" syndromes incidence) and intervention functions. Intervention functions used 11 dummy variables representing each post vaccine epidemiological period. The evolution of serotype distributions was assessed for the entire population and the two most exposed age groups (<5 and > 64 years old). For the first time since PCV7 introduction in 2003, total PM cases decreased significantly after starting PCV13 use: -7.1 (95% CI, -10.85 to -3.35) cases per month during 2013-2014, and was confirmed in children < 5 years old (-3.5; 95% CI, -4.81 to -2.13) and adults > 64 years old (-2.0; 95% CI, -3.36 to -0.57). During 2012-2014, different non-vaccine serotypes emerged: 12F, 24F in the entire population and children, 6C in the elderly; serotypes 3 and 19F persisted in the entire population. Unlike other European countries, the total PM cases in France declined only after introduction of PCV13. This suggests that vaccine pressure alone does not explain pneumococcal epidemiological changes and that other factors could play a role. Serotype distribution had changed substantially compared to the pre-vaccine era, as in other European countries, but very differently from the US. A highly reactive surveillance system is thus necessary not only to monitor evolutions due to vaccine pressure and to verify the local serotypic appropriateness of new higher-valent pneumococcal vaccines, but also to recognise and prevent unexpected changes due to other internal or external factors.