The current distribution of tick species in Inner Mongolia and inferring potential suitability areas for dominant tick species based on the MaxEnt model

Rui Ma, Chunfu Li, Haoqiang Tian, Yan Zhang, Xinyu Feng, Jian Li, Wei Hu

Ticks are known to transmit a wide range of diseases, including those caused by bacteria, viruses, and protozoa. The expansion of tick habitats has been intensified in recent years due to various factors such as global warming, alterations in microclimate, and human activities. Consequently, the probability of human exposure to diseases transmitted by ticks has increased, leading to a higher degree of risk associated with such diseases. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive review of domestic and international literature databases to determine the current distribution of tick species in Inner Mongolia. Next, we employed the MaxEnt model to analyze vital climatic and environmental factors influencing dominant tick distribution. Subsequently, we predicted the potential suitability areas of these dominant tick species under the near current conditions and the BCC-CSM2.MR model SSP245 scenario for the future periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Our study revealed the presence of 23 tick species from six genera in Inner Mongolia, including four dominant tick species (Dermacentor nuttalli, Ixodes persulcatus, Dermacentor silvarum, and Hyalomma asiaticum). Dermacentor nuttalli, D. silvarum, and I. persulcatus are predominantly found in regions such as Xilin Gol and Hulunbuir. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), elevation (elev), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the primary variables impacting the distribution of three tick species. In contrast, H. asiaticum is mainly distributed in Alxa and Bayannur and demonstrates heightened sensitivity to precipitation and other climatic factors. Our modeling results suggested that the potential suitability areas of these tick species would experience fluctuations over the four future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). Specifically, by 2081-2100, the centroid of suitable habitat for D. nuttalli, H. asiaticum, and I. persulcatus was predicted to shift westward, with new suitability areas emerging in regions such as Chifeng and Xilin Gol. The centroid of suitable habitat for H. asiaticum will move northeastward, and new suitability areas are likely to appear in areas such as Ordos and Bayannur. This study provided a comprehensive overview of the tick species distribution patterns in Inner Mongolia. Our research has revealed a significant diversity of tick species in the region, exhibiting a wide distribution but with notable regional disparities. Our modeling results suggested that the dominant tick species' suitable habitats will significantly expand in the future compared to their existing distribution under the near current conditions. Temperature and precipitation are the primary variables influencing these shifts in distribution. These findings can provide a valuable reference for future research on tick distribution and the surveillance of tick-borne diseases in the region.