Risk estimates of recurrent congenital anomalies in the UK: a population-based register study

Svetlana V. Glinianaia, Peter W. G. Tennant, Judith Rankin

Recurrence risks for familial congenital anomalies in successive pregnancies are known, but this information for major structural anomalies is lacking. We estimated the absolute and relative risks of recurrent congenital anomaly in the second pregnancy for women with a history of a congenital anomaly in the first pregnancy, for all major anomaly groups and subtypes. Population-based register data on 18,605 singleton pregnancies affected by major congenital anomaly occurring in 872,493 singleton stillbirths, live births and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were obtained from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey, North of England, UK, for 1985-2010. Absolute risks (ARs) and relative risks (RRs) for recurrent congenital anomaly (overall, from a similar group, from a dissimilar group) in the second pregnancy were estimated by history of congenital anomaly (overall, by group, by subtype) in the first pregnancy. The estimated prevalences of congenital anomaly in first and second pregnancies were 275 (95% CI 270-281) and 163 (95% CI 159-168) per 10,000 respectively. For women whose first pregnancy was affected by congenital anomaly, the AR of recurrent congenital anomaly in the second pregnancy was 408 (95% CI 365-456) per 10,000, 2.5 (95% CI 2.3-2.8, P < 0.0001) times higher than for those with unaffected first pregnancies. For similar anomalies, the recurrence risk was considerably elevated (RR = 23.8, 95% CI 19.6-27.9, P < 0.0001), while for dissimilar anomalies the increase was more modest (RR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6, P = 0.001), although the ARs for both were 2%. Absolute recurrence risks varied between 1 in 20 and 1 in 30 for most major anomaly groups. At pre-conception and antenatal counselling, women whose first pregnancy was affected by a congenital anomaly and who are planning a further pregnancy may find it reassuring that, despite high relative risks, the absolute recurrence risk is relatively low.