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El Niño Southern Oscillation as an early warning tool for malaria outbreaks in India

Overview of attention for article published in Malaria Journal, March 2017
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  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (83rd percentile)

Mentioned by

1 news outlet
4 tweeters

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79 Mendeley
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El Niño Southern Oscillation as an early warning tool for malaria outbreaks in India
Published in
Malaria Journal, March 2017
DOI 10.1186/s12936-017-1779-y
Pubmed ID

Ramesh C. Dhiman, Soma Sarkar


Risks of malaria epidemics in relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have been mapped and studied at global level. In India, where malaria is a major public health problem, no such effort has been undertaken that inter-relates El Niño, Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and malaria. The present study has been undertaken to find out the relationship between ENSO events, ISMR and intra-annual variability in malaria cases in India, which in turn could help mitigate the malaria outbreaks. Correlation coefficients among 'rainfall index' (ISMR), '+ winter ONI' (NDJF) and 'malaria case index' were calculated using annual state-level data for the last 22 years. The 'malaria case index' representing 'relative change from mean' was correlated to the 4 month (November-February) average positive Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The resultant correlations between '+ winter ONI' and 'malaria case index' were further analysed on geographical information system platform to generate spatial correlation map. The correlation between '+ winter ONI' and 'rainfall index' shows that there is great disparity in effect of ENSO over ISMR distribution across the country. Correlation between 'rainfall index' and 'malaria case index' shows that malaria transmission in all geographical regions of India are not equally affected by the ISMR deficit or excess. Correlation between '+ winter ONI' and 'malaria case index' was found ranging from -0.5 to + 0.7 (p < 0.05). A positive correlation indicates that increase in El Niño intensity (+ winter ONI) will lead to rise in total malaria cases in the concurrent year in the states of Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Goa, eastern parts of Madhya Pradesh, part of Andhra Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Meghalaya. Whereas, negative correlations were found in the states of Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat, part of Tamil Nadu, Manipur, Mizoram and Sikkim indicating the likelihood of outbreaks in La Nina condition. The generated map, representing spatial correlation between ' + winter ONI' and 'malaria case index', indicates positive correlations in eastern part, while negative correlations in western part of India. This study provides plausible guidelines to national programme for planning intervention measures in view of ENSO events. For better resolution, district level study with inclusion of IOD and 'epochal variation of monsoon rainfall' factors at micro-level is desired for better forecast of malaria outbreaks in the regions with 'no correlation'.

Twitter Demographics

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Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 79 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
India 1 1%
Australia 1 1%
Unknown 77 97%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Researcher 22 28%
Student > Master 13 16%
Student > Bachelor 13 16%
Student > Ph. D. Student 5 6%
Student > Postgraduate 3 4%
Other 7 9%
Unknown 16 20%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 11 14%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 11 14%
Medicine and Dentistry 10 13%
Nursing and Health Professions 6 8%
Earth and Planetary Sciences 4 5%
Other 15 19%
Unknown 22 28%

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 12. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 06 September 2017.
All research outputs
of 16,029,194 outputs
Outputs from Malaria Journal
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Outputs of similar age
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Outputs of similar age from Malaria Journal
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Altmetric has tracked 16,029,194 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 89th percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 4,519 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a little more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 6.0. This one has done particularly well, scoring higher than 90% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 267,986 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 83% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 1 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one has scored higher than all of them