Risk assessment of malaria transmission at the border area of China and Myanmar

Benyun Shi, Jinxin Zheng, Hongjun Qiu, Guo-Jing Yang, Shang Xia, Xiao-Nong Zhou

In order to achieve the goal of malaria elimination, the Chinese government launched the National Malaria Elimination Programme in 2010. However, as a result of increasing cross-border population movements, the risk of imported malaria cases still exists at the border areas of China, resulting in a potential threat of local transmission. The focus of this paper is to assess the Plasmodium vivax incidences in Tengchong, Yunnan Province, at the border areas of China and Myanmar. Time series of P. vivax incidences in Tengchong from 2006 to 2010 are collected from the web-based China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, which are further separated into time series of imported and local cases. First, the seasonal and trend decomposition are performed on time series of imported cases using Loess method. Then, the impact of climatic factors on the local transmission of P. vivax is assessed using both linear regression models (LRM) and generalized additive models (GAM). Specifically, the notion of vectorial capacity (VCAP) is used to estimate the transmission potential of P. vivax at different locations, which is calculated based on temperature and rainfall collected from China Meteorological Administration. Comparing with Ruili County, the seasonal pattern of imported cases in Tengchong is different: Tengchong has only one peak, while Ruili has two peaks during each year. This may be due to the different cross-border behaviors of peoples in two locations. The vectorial capacity together with the imported cases and the average humidity, can well explain the local incidences of P. vivax through both LRM and GAM methods. Moreover, the maximum daily temperature is verified to be more suitable to calculate VCAP than the minimal and average temperature in Tengchong County. To achieve malaria elimination in China, the assessment results in this paper will provide further guidance in active surveillance and control of malaria at the border areas of China and Myanmar.