A frailty index predicts post-liver transplant morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive patients

Giovanni Guaraldi, Giovanni Dolci, Stefano Zona, Giuseppe Tarantino, Valentina Serra, Roberto Ballarin, Erica Franceschini, Mauro Codeluppi, Thomas D. Brothers, Cristina Mussini, Fabrizio Di Benedetto

We hypothesized that frailty acts as a measure of health outcomes in the context of LT. The aim of this study was to explore frailty index across LT, as a measure of morbidity and mortality. This was a retrospective observational study including all consecutive 47 HIV+patients who received LT in Modena, Italy from 2003 to June 2015. frailty index (FI) was constructed from 30 health variables. It was used both as a continuous score and as a categorical variable, defining 'most frail' a FI > 0.45. FI change across transplant (deltaFI, ΔFI) was calculated as the difference between year 1 FI (FI-Y1) and pre-transplant FI (FI-t0). The outcomes measures were mortality and "otpimal LT" (defined as being alive without multi-morbidity). Median value of FI-t0 was 0.48 (IQR 0.42-0.52), FI-Y1 was 0.31 (IQR 0.26-0.41). At year five mortality rate was 45%, "optimal transplant" rate at year 1 was 38%. All the patients who died in the post-LT were most frail in the pre-LT. ΔFI was a predictor of mortality after correction for age and MELD (HR = 1.10, p = 0.006) and was inversely associated with optimal transplant after correction for age (HR = 1.04, p = 0.01). We validated FI as a valuable health measure in HIV transplant. In particular, we found a relevant correlation between FI strata at baseline and mortality and a statistically significant correlation between, ΔFI and survival rate.