How an aging society affects the economic costs of inactivity in Germany: empirical evidence and projections

Sören Dallmeyer, Pamela Wicker, Christoph Breuer

Aging societies represent a major challenge for health care systems all over the world. As older people tend to be more physically inactive, economic costs of inactivity are likely to increase notably. The present study aims to investigate this relationship between an aging society and economic costs of inactivity using the example of Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study applied the comparative risk assessment method developed by the WHO to estimate the direct costs of inactivity for the period 2001-2013 differentiated by gender-specific age-groups (15-29; 30-44; 45-64; 65+). Based on population statistics predicting the aging of the German population for the years 2014-2060, this research projects the development of future costs of inactivity and potential effects of interventions promoting physical activity among the German population. The results reveal an increase in the level of physical activity during the observed period (2001-2013) which compensated the negative effect of aging and resulted in a decline of inactivity costs. The projections for the years 2014-2060 indicate a constant increase in direct per capita costs until 2060 because of an aging society. Scenarios indicating how a short-term reduction of physical inactivity impacts costs of inactivity reveal the crucial role of the oldest age-group in this context. The findings indicate that the aging of the German population demands further actions and initiatives to promote physical activity, especially for the oldest age-group.