Indicators for early assessment of palliative care in lung cancer patients: a population study using linked health data

Maria Kelly, Katie M. O’Brien, Michael Lucey, Kerri Clough-Gorr, Ailish Hannigan

Analysing linked, routinely collected data may be useful to identify characteristics of patients with suspected lung cancer who could benefit from early assessment for palliative care. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients dying within 30 days of diagnosis (short term survivors) with those surviving more than 30 days. To identify indicators for early palliative care assessment we distinguished between characteristics available at diagnosis (age, gender, smoking status, marital status, comorbid disease, admission type, tumour stage and histology) from those available post diagnosis. A second aim was to examine the association between receiving any tumour-directed treatment, place of death and survival time. A retrospective observational population based study comparing lung cancer patients who died within 30 days of diagnosis (short term survivors) with those who survived longer using Chi-squared tests and logistic regression. Incident lung cancer (ICD-03:C34) patients diagnosed 2005-2012 inclusive who died before 01-01-2014 (n = 14,228) were identified from the National Cancer Registry of Ireland linked to death certificate data and acute hospital episode data. One in five newly diagnosed lung cancer patients died within 30 days of diagnosis. After adjusting for stage and histology, death within 30 days was higher in patients who were aged 80 years or older (adjusted OR 2.46; 95%CI 2.05-3.96; p < 0.001), patients with emergency admissions at diagnosis (adjusted OR 2.96; 95%CI 2.61-3.37; p < 0.001) and patients with any comorbidities at diagnosis (adjusted OR 1.32 95%CI 1.15-1.52; p < 0.001). Overall, 75% of those who died within 30 days died in hospital compared to 43% of longer term survivors. We have shown a high proportion of lung cancer patients who die within 30 days of diagnosis are older, have comorbidities and are admitted through the emergency department. These characteristics, available at diagnosis, may be useful prognostic factors to guide decisions on early assessment for palliative care for lung cancer patients. Patients who die shortly after diagnosis are more likely to die in hospital so reporting place of death by survival time may be useful to evaluate interventions to reduce deaths in acute hospitals.