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Population aging and migration – history and UN forecasts in the EU-28 and its east and south near neighborhood – one century perspective 1950–2050

Overview of attention for article published in Globalization and Health, March 2018
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  • In the top 25% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric
  • High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (81st percentile)
  • Average Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source

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Title
Population aging and migration – history and UN forecasts in the EU-28 and its east and south near neighborhood – one century perspective 1950–2050
Published in
Globalization and Health, March 2018
DOI 10.1186/s12992-018-0348-7
Pubmed ID
Authors

Mihajlo Michael Jakovljevic, Yael Netz, Sandra C. Buttigieg, Roza Adany, Ulrich Laaser, Mirjana Varjacic

Abstract

There is a gap in knowledge on long term pace of population aging acceleration and related net-migration rate changes in WHO European Region and its adjacent MENA countries. We decided to compare European Union (EU-28) region with the EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South in terms of these two essential features of third demographic transition. One century long perspective dating back to both historical data and towards reliable future forecasts was observed. United Nation's Department of Economic and Social Affairs estimates on indicators of population aging and migration were observed. Time horizon adopted was 1950-2050. Targeted 44 countries belong to either one of three regions named by EU diplomacy as: European Union or EU-28, EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region East (ENP East) and EU Near Neighborhood Policy Region South (ENP South). European Union region currently experiences most advanced stage of demographic aging. The latter one is the ENP East region dominated by Slavic nations whose fertility decline continues since the USSR Era back in late 1980s. ENP South region dominated by Arab League nations remains rather young compared to their northern counterparts. However, as the Third Demographic Transition is inevitably coming to these societies they remain the spring of youth and positive net emigration rate. Probably the most prominent change will be the extreme fall of total fertility rate (children per woman) in ENP South countries (dominantly Arab League) from 6.72 back in 1950 to medium-scenario forecasted 2.10 in 2050. In the same time net number of migrants in the EU28 (both sexes combined) will grow from - 91,000 in 1950 to + 394,000 in 2050. Long term migration from Eastern Europe westwards and from MENA region northwards is historically present for many decades dating back deep into the Cold War Era. Contemporary large-scale migrations outsourcing from Arab League nations towards rich European Protestant North is probably the peak of an iceberg in long migration routes history. However, in the decades to come acceleration of aging is likely to question sustainability of such movements of people.

X Demographics

X Demographics

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 61 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 61 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Ph. D. Student 6 10%
Researcher 5 8%
Student > Master 5 8%
Professor 4 7%
Lecturer 4 7%
Other 11 18%
Unknown 26 43%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 8 13%
Social Sciences 6 10%
Nursing and Health Professions 5 8%
Economics, Econometrics and Finance 3 5%
Business, Management and Accounting 2 3%
Other 6 10%
Unknown 31 51%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 11. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 11 May 2018.
All research outputs
#2,885,655
of 23,028,364 outputs
Outputs from Globalization and Health
#465
of 1,110 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#62,634
of 333,153 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Globalization and Health
#21
of 30 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 23,028,364 research outputs across all sources so far. Compared to these this one has done well and is in the 87th percentile: it's in the top 25% of all research outputs ever tracked by Altmetric.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,110 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 22.0. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 58% of its peers.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 333,153 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has done well, scoring higher than 81% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 30 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 30th percentile – i.e., 30% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.