Title |
Mobile population dynamics and malaria vulnerability: a modelling study in the China-Myanmar border region of Yunnan Province, China
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Published in |
Infectious Diseases of Poverty, April 2018
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DOI | 10.1186/s40249-018-0423-6 |
Pubmed ID | |
Authors |
Tian-Mu Chen, Shao-Sen Zhang, Jun Feng, Zhi-Gui Xia, Chun-Hai Luo, Xu-Can Zeng, Xiang-Rui Guo, Zu-Rui Lin, Hong-Ning Zhou, Shui-Sen Zhou |
Abstract |
The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China, and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region. A community-based, cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections, and imported cases were identified in each village (between January 2013 and September 2016). A stochastic simulation model (SSM) was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability, according to the mechanisms of malaria importation. Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages, with a 4-year average of 1 case/year (range: 0-5 cases/year). No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016. The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012 (range: 0.000-0.033). The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56% (range: 28.38-71.95%). Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection. The SSM model fit the investigated data (χ2 = 0.487, P = 0.485). The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011 (range: 0.0048-0.1585). The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village. A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region. Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China. |
X Demographics
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India | 1 | 100% |
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Members of the public | 1 | 100% |
Mendeley readers
Geographical breakdown
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Unknown | 64 | 100% |
Demographic breakdown
Readers by professional status | Count | As % |
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Researcher | 15 | 23% |
Student > Ph. D. Student | 8 | 13% |
Student > Bachelor | 6 | 9% |
Student > Master | 5 | 8% |
Other | 3 | 5% |
Other | 11 | 17% |
Unknown | 16 | 25% |
Readers by discipline | Count | As % |
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Medicine and Dentistry | 17 | 27% |
Social Sciences | 6 | 9% |
Nursing and Health Professions | 4 | 6% |
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | 3 | 5% |
Mathematics | 3 | 5% |
Other | 13 | 20% |
Unknown | 18 | 28% |