The impact of contour variation on tumour control probability in anal cancer

Michael P. Jones, Jarad Martin, Kerwyn Foo, Patrick Estoesta, Lois Holloway, Michael Jameson

While intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has been widely adopted for the treatment of anal cancer (AC), the added contour complexity poses potential risks. This study investigates the impact of contour variation on tumour control probability (TCP) when using IMRT for AC. Nine Australian centres contoured a single computed tomography dataset of a patient with AC. The same optimised template-based IMRT planning protocol was applied to each contour set to generate nine representative treatment plans and their corresponding dose volume histograms. A geometric analysis was performed on all contours. The TCP was calculated for each plan using the linear quadratic and logitEUD model. The median concordance index (CI) for the bladder, head and neck of femur, bone marrow, small bowel and external genitalia was 0.94, 0.88, 0.84, 0.65 and 0.65, respectively. The median CI for the involved nodal, primary tumour and elective clinical target volumes were 0.85, 0.77 and 0.71, respectively. Across the nine plans, the TCP was not significantly different. Variation in TCP between plans increased as tumour cell load increased or radiation dose decreased. When using IMRT for AC, contour variations generated from a common protocol within the limits of minor deviations do not appear to have a significant impact on TCP. Contouring variations may be more critical with increasing tumour cell load or reducing radiotherapy dose.