Quantifying the broader economic consequences of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Germany applying a government perspective framework

Nikolaos Kotsopoulos, Mark P Connolly, Vanessa Remy

HPV infections can cause substantial burden in females and males as it is associated with several genital cancers, in addition to genital warts. Traditional economic evaluations often focus on quantifying cost-effectiveness, however, it is increasingly recognized that vaccinations may generate broader benefits not captured in cost-effectiveness analysis. Τhe aim of this study was to evaluate the broader economic consequences associated with HPV vaccination in males and females and to conduct a lifetime cost-benefit analysis of investing in universal vaccination in Germany from the perspective of government. Methodologies from generational accounting, human capital and health economics were combined to estimate the broader economic consequences of HPV vaccination including the fiscal impact for the government. A cohort model was developed simulating the medical costs and average lifetime fiscal transfers between the government and 12-year-old immunized and non-immunized males and females. To estimate tax revenue attributed to vaccination-related changes in morbidity and mortality, direct and indirect tax rates were linked to differences in age- and gender-specific earnings. Based on HPV vaccination costs, the base case cost-benefit analysis demonstrated that investing <euro>1 in universal HPV vaccination could yield <euro>1.7 in gross tax revenue over the lifetime of the cohorts. After taking into consideration the governmental transfers, universal HPV vaccination in Germany could result in incremental positive net discounted taxes (i.e. tax revenue-transfers) from <euro>62 million for the German government. The vaccination of males and females with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine is likely to have positive effects on public finances.