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Mortality effects of heat waves vary by age and area: a multi-area study in China

Overview of attention for article published in Environmental Health, June 2018
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Title
Mortality effects of heat waves vary by age and area: a multi-area study in China
Published in
Environmental Health, June 2018
DOI 10.1186/s12940-018-0398-6
Pubmed ID
Authors

Lingyan Zhang, Zhao Zhang, Tao Ye, Maigeng Zhou, Chenzhi Wang, Peng Yin, Bin Hou

Abstract

Many studies have reported an increased mortality risk from heat waves comparing with non-heat wave days. However, how much the mortality rate change with the heat intensity-vulnerability curve-is still unknown. Such unknown information makes the related managers impossible to assess scientifically life losses from heat waves, consequently fail in conducting suitable integrated risk management measures. We used the heat wave intensity index (HWII) to characterize quantitatively the heat waves, then applied a distributed lag non-linear model to explore the area-specific definition of heat wave, and developed the vulnerability models on the relationships between HWII and mortality by age and by area. Finally, Monte Carlo method was run to assess and compare the event-based probabilistic heat wave risk during the periods of 1971-2015 and 2051-2095. We found a localized definition of heat wave for each corresponding area based on the minimum AIC (Akaike information criterion). Under the local heat wave events, the expected life loss during 1971-2015 does distinguish across areas, and decreases consistently in the order of WZ Chongqing, PK Nanjing and YX Guangzhou for each age group. More specifically, for the elders (≥65), the average annual loss (AAL) (and 95% confidence interval) would be 61.3 (30.6-91.9), 38 (3.8-72.2) and 18.7 (7.3-30) deaths per million people. With two stresses from warming and aging in future China, the predicted average AAL of the elders under four Representative Carbon Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) during 2051-2095 would be 2460, 1675, 465 deaths per million for PK Nanjing, YX Guangzhou and WZ Chongqing, respectively, approximately becoming 8~ 90 times of the AAL during 1971-2015. This study found that the non-linear HWII-mortality relationships vary by age and area. The heat wave mortality losses are closely associated with the social-economic level. With the increasing extreme climatic events and a rapid aging trend in China, our findings can provide guidance for policy-makers to take appropriate regional adaptive measures to reduce health risks in China.

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Mendeley readers

Mendeley readers

The data shown below were compiled from readership statistics for 77 Mendeley readers of this research output. Click here to see the associated Mendeley record.

Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
Unknown 77 100%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Master 17 22%
Researcher 10 13%
Student > Ph. D. Student 10 13%
Student > Bachelor 4 5%
Student > Doctoral Student 3 4%
Other 9 12%
Unknown 24 31%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Environmental Science 11 14%
Engineering 8 10%
Medicine and Dentistry 7 9%
Social Sciences 6 8%
Nursing and Health Professions 4 5%
Other 10 13%
Unknown 31 40%
Attention Score in Context

Attention Score in Context

This research output has an Altmetric Attention Score of 4. This is our high-level measure of the quality and quantity of online attention that it has received. This Attention Score, as well as the ranking and number of research outputs shown below, was calculated when the research output was last mentioned on 08 June 2023.
All research outputs
#7,805,604
of 23,971,024 outputs
Outputs from Environmental Health
#873
of 1,541 outputs
Outputs of similar age
#130,159
of 331,426 outputs
Outputs of similar age from Environmental Health
#12
of 20 outputs
Altmetric has tracked 23,971,024 research outputs across all sources so far. This one has received more attention than most of these and is in the 67th percentile.
So far Altmetric has tracked 1,541 research outputs from this source. They typically receive a lot more attention than average, with a mean Attention Score of 34.6. This one is in the 43rd percentile – i.e., 43% of its peers scored the same or lower than it.
Older research outputs will score higher simply because they've had more time to accumulate mentions. To account for age we can compare this Altmetric Attention Score to the 331,426 tracked outputs that were published within six weeks on either side of this one in any source. This one has gotten more attention than average, scoring higher than 60% of its contemporaries.
We're also able to compare this research output to 20 others from the same source and published within six weeks on either side of this one. This one is in the 45th percentile – i.e., 45% of its contemporaries scored the same or lower than it.