Global travel patterns and risk of measles in Ontario and Quebec, Canada: 2007–2011

Sarah E. Wilson, Kamran Khan, Vladimir Gilca, Jennifer Miniota, Shelley L. Deeks, Gillian Lim, Rose Eckhardt, Shelly Bolotin, Natasha S. Crowcroft

In 2011 the largest measles outbreak in North America in a decade occurred in Quebec, Canada with over 700 cases. In contrast, measles activity in neighbouring province Ontario remained low (8 cases). Our objective was to determine the extent to which the difference could be explained by differing travel patterns. We explored the relationship between measles cases over 2007-2011, by importation classification, in Quebec and Ontario in relation to global travel patterns to each province using an ecological approach. Global measles exposure was estimated by multiplying the monthly traveler volume for each country of origin into Quebec or Ontario by the yearly measles incidence rate for the corresponding country. Visual inspection of temporal figures and calculation of Pearson correlation coefficients were performed. Global measles exposure was similar in Ontario and Quebec. In Quebec, there was a nearly perfectly linear relationship between annual measles cases and its global measles exposure index over 2007-2011 (r = 0.99, p = 0.001). In contrast, there was a non-significant association in Ontario. The 2011 rise in Quebec's index was largely driven by a dramatic increase in measles activity in France the same year. Global measles activity was associated with measles epidemiology in Quebec. Global measles exposure risk is higher in Ontario than Quebec. Differences in measles epidemiology between Ontario and Quebec from 2007-2011 are not explained by greater exposure in Quebec. A combination of alternative factors may be responsible, including differences in population susceptibility.