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A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned

Overview of attention for article published in Infectious Diseases of Poverty, September 2015
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Title
A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned
Published in
Infectious Diseases of Poverty, September 2015
DOI 10.1186/s40249-015-0075-8
Pubmed ID
Authors

N D B Ehelepola, Kusalika Ariyaratne, W M N P Buddhadasa, Sunil Ratnayake, Malani Wickramasinghe

Abstract

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

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Mendeley readers

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Geographical breakdown

Country Count As %
United Kingdom 2 1%
Bhutan 1 <1%
Brazil 1 <1%
Unknown 172 98%

Demographic breakdown

Readers by professional status Count As %
Student > Bachelor 25 14%
Researcher 24 14%
Student > Master 21 12%
Student > Ph. D. Student 15 9%
Student > Postgraduate 9 5%
Other 26 15%
Unknown 56 32%
Readers by discipline Count As %
Medicine and Dentistry 31 18%
Agricultural and Biological Sciences 16 9%
Nursing and Health Professions 14 8%
Environmental Science 12 7%
Mathematics 8 5%
Other 32 18%
Unknown 63 36%