Applying a system dynamics modelling approach to explore policy options for improving neonatal health in Uganda

Agnes Rwashana Semwanga, Sarah Nakubulwa, Taghreed Adam

The most recent reports on global trends in neonatal mortality continue to show alarmingly slow progress on improvements in neonatal mortality rates, with sub-Saharan Africa still lagging behind. This emphasised the urgent need to innovatively employ alternative solutions that take into account the intricate complexities of neonatal health and the health systems in which the various strategies operate. In our first paper, we empirically explored the causes of the stagnating neonatal mortality in Uganda using a dynamic synthesis methodology (DSM) approach. In this paper, we completed the last three stages of DSM, which involved the development of a quantitative (simulation) model, using STELLA modelling software. We used statistical data to populate the model. Through brainstorming sessions with stakeholders, iterations to test and validate the model were undertaken. The different strategies and policy interventions that could possibly lower neonatal mortality rates were tested using what-if analysis. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the strategies that could have a great impact on neonatal mortality. We developed a neonatal health simulation model (NEOSIM) to explore potential interventions that could possibly improve neonatal health within a health system context. The model has four sectors, namely population, demand for services, health of the mothers and choices of clinical care. It tests the effects of various interventions validated by a number of Ugandan health practitioners, including health education campaigns, free delivery kits, motorcycle coupons, kangaroo mother care, improving neonatal resuscitation and labour management skills, and interventions to improve the mothers health, i.e. targeting malaria, anaemia and tetanus. Among the tested interventions, the package with the highest impact on reducing neonatal mortality rates was a combination of the free delivery kits in a setting where delivery services were free and motorcycle coupons to take women to hospital during emergencies. This study presents a System Dynamics model with a broad and integrated view of the neonatal health system facilitating a deeper understanding of its current state and constraints and how these can be mitigated. A tool with a user friendly interface presents the dynamic nature of the model using 'what-if' scenarios, thus enabling health practitioners to discuss the consequences or effects of various decisions. Key findings of the research show that proposed interventions and their impact can be tested through simulation experiments thereby generating policies and interventions with the highest impact for improved healthcare service delivery.