Possibilities for the future of global mental health: a scenario planning approach

Stefan Priebe, Álvaro Arenas Borrero, Victoria Bird, Alma Džubur Kulenoviĉ, Domenico Giacco, Carlos Gómez Restrepo, Fahmy Hanna, Sandrasagary Jayacodi, Seggane Musisi, Craig Morgan, Noeline Nakasujja, Alina Sabitova, Stephen Sandford, Nelson Sewankambo, José Miguel Uribe Restrepo

Global mental health is a widely used term describing initiatives in policies, research and practice to improve the mental health of people worldwide. It has been gaining momentum over the last 10 years, reflected in increasing funding opportunities, training programmes, and publications. In light of the rising importance of global mental health and the various uncertainties about its future directions, this paper explores what the future may hold for global mental health in 30 years' time. A scenario planning method was used, involving a workshop with experts from four continents and a range of backgrounds, including clinical and academic psychiatry, psychology, art and music therapy, service user advisory role, funder of global health research and post-graduate students. Six distinct scenarios that describe potential future situations were developed: universal standards for care; worldwide coordination of research; making use of diversity; focus on social factors; globalised care through technology; mental health as a currency in global politics. These scenarios consider different social, economic, scientific and technological drivers and focus on distinct aspects. Some reflect a global application of possible trends in mental health, whilst others apply general global developments to mental health care. They are not fixed forecasts, but instead may help to promote discussion and debate about further developments and decisions.