@davidicke Now look at this interval from coronation to corona virus benchmark of 66 years 6 months and 6 days. https://t.co/MTq6jq9Fpd Look what happened that day. https://t.co/l3wINm4fis. There is a lot more to this. Once you see then you cannot unse
@maestro_rayo @plaforscience @MLevitt_NP2013 @carlheneghan Once you understand why 2nd derivative (blue on my graph-acceleration) is better measure than 1st (velocity) as explained in linked paper you will understand why @carlheneghan is right. Can you poi
@HRenkel @MLevitt_NP2013 For rate of change in velocity (relative acceleration:2nd deriv) we only need to know previous velocity (previous day’s deaths). This paper explains 1st and most important reason to use 2nd deriv to test for exp growth. https://t.c
@HRenkel @MLevitt_NP2013 The paper linked below explains why 2nd deriv should be used to test for acceleration of deaths/infections. https://t.co/72TQEWRt2h
@alexkx3 @BallouxFrancois These are 2nd derivatives shown next to Gompertz and logistic curves with same plateau and zero point as actual for that location. Black line is start of decay phase for actual. Left of black is exp/transition phase. Levitt uses 1
@MLevitt_NP2013 M Levitt uses 1st derivative for his prediction, which is perfectly valid for that purpose as he wants to find str lines on log scale. This reference has a good explanation for why 2nd derivative is preferred to test for exp growth: https:/
@MLevitt_NP2013 Another logic fail for @MLevitt_NP2013 because he does not know how to calc 2nd derivative from mortality like the academics who wrote these papers: https://t.co/UFEBdupRNJ https://t.co/TJ8i0WmPjt https://t.co/kWRUGWiH0j
@MLevitt_NP2013 Such a pith ML does not know how to calc 2nd derivative to test for exp. like the academics who wrote these papers: https://t.co/fQTxUdfB5q https://t.co/TJ8i0WmPjt https://t.co/CmahN1ezUM
@EtInVacui @NYmistie @TINAP49084422 @kingKun54417312 @MorganNarrates The panic started in China in Jan 2020 which effected the markets here due to the supply chain. https://t.co/qvxBxbcRxR
RT @miakiza20100906: @NipponLike @nunonofuku123 要領を得ないので疲れてきました。 これらの論文の中を latent period で検索してみてください。説明があります: https://t.co/WV5Ia36vHP ,…
@NipponLike @nunonofuku123 要領を得ないので疲れてきました。 これらの論文の中を latent period で検索してみてください。説明があります: https://t.co/WV5Ia36vHP , https://t.co/Jk0G7uKbOq
@wanghoaneng @DFisman @jkwan_md @JPSoucy @CBCQueensPark @AshTuite @AmyGreerKalisz Maybe you have seen this already, but if not, take a look: https://t.co/XZuFOhO2S9 Also this discussion about 2nd derivative in the IHME models: https://t.co/ZKR87pFOXo
@EdsonCGuido You might want to view this. Helpful tip in planning. https://t.co/6rMxJl0KXL
@pedro75 @dottorpax @Oldwheels01 @ricpuglisi Non è vero che non significhi nulla. Bisogna solo leggerlo per quello che è e non per quello che pare a noi. Se ti interessa, qui si collega la derivata secondo allo studio propagatorio. https://t.co/zp03f5rSJp
RT @doctorluckmd: "...there is no so-called a best time or missed the best time to take actions." For those complaining why this gov't did…
This does not prove the point of your original tweet, which undermined the successes of past admins just to defend the shortcomings of the present one.
@BuildSoil You might be up to something there. Here's the other paper. It explores what to do with that second derivative, once you have it. Even if the official numbers might be biased, that model could be useful. https://t.co/3GSydj17hJ
@JaneTheRaven13 Just read this: https://t.co/2V2XEEtCro
Calculus shows us inflection points, can help control the pandemic #COVID19 https://t.co/8GYC2rt0O6
@Salothman1991 @Salothman1991 لمزيد من المعلومات بإمكانك قرائة هذا البحث https://t.co/7aU5mMdTUY
@physicspod @FatEmperor @raphaels7 @tomek_rojek @DaveKeto For starters, it's wrong that the cases were on an exponential trajectory. They weren't on an exponential trajectory in China, either. https://t.co/fNyvnEiD8k I have a big problem with people who
@anuraguniyal @neil_ferguson Even in Wuhan is was not exponential. https://t.co/YuGnIi9Cvg
RT @wanghoaneng: Cumulative case count data (+1st & 2nd derivatives = speed and acceleration) for China and for Ontario. Tracking the 2nd d…
RT @wanghoaneng: Cumulative case count data (+1st & 2nd derivatives = speed and acceleration) for China and for Ontario. Tracking the 2nd d…
RT @wanghoaneng: Cumulative case count data (+1st & 2nd derivatives = speed and acceleration) for China and for Ontario. Tracking the 2nd d…
I’m glad I’m not the only one who wondered “But what does the second derivative of the COVID curve look like?” Here is a mathematical model study I found when I went looking, for the nerds. https://t.co/sIt7anoVRz
@CBCQueensPark This value of 18.75% is slightly higher than what was seen in Wuhan during the first two months (i.e. 17.16%). SOURCE: https://t.co/otzKYXUqjM https://t.co/Qo5j9vPRbV
@LenchuRey Te hago el favor de hasta linkearte uno, pero tene cuidado, no te esfuerzes mucho que con hipoxia capaz se te apaga el cerebro (ojala) https://t.co/3RO6hPMw97
RT @TuckerGoodrich: Like we did with SARS? Coronavirus is not following an exponential growth pattern, and neither did SARS. "...the COVID…
RT @TuckerGoodrich: Like we did with SARS? Coronavirus is not following an exponential growth pattern, and neither did SARS. "...the COVID…
New article: First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model. https://t.co/SHbKZmIDGX #coronavirus #COVID19 #2019ncov
RT @TuckerGoodrich: Like we did with SARS? Coronavirus is not following an exponential growth pattern, and neither did SARS. "...the COVID…
RT @TuckerGoodrich: Like we did with SARS? Coronavirus is not following an exponential growth pattern, and neither did SARS. "...the COVID…
Like we did with SARS? Coronavirus is not following an exponential growth pattern, and neither did SARS. "...the COVID-19 outbreak in China is nonlinear and chaotic."" https://t.co/G9BYOPQJGX
A paper explaining #COVID2019 deceleration through second derivatives @carlquintanilla https://t.co/wRQFjCGdFk